Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
